this is for cl cuz he keep calling me and asking me abt malaysian shares but share with others also for those interested
cl, first i must say hor... i am only newbie. i only share with u some sources of information and some newbie tips/understanding i learned along the way about local shares. actually i wanted to learn about shares long time and read many books but without first hand going in, no use, all theory cannot apply. but i met a new friend abt 2 years back who happen to be very interested in shares and actively trade midterm and he was very generous in teaching me and sharing with me watever he knows even though he is not really sifu(his trading account around 200k although he works only as a maxis promotion event supervisor/technical support). because of him.. i know a bit more to dare to invest more and as such learn more.
anyway here are some understanding i have on shares
1) there are many ways to invest in shares and one should learn the many art of it if u want to be good in it. just like badminton, u may win some points if u good in smash or lobe, but if u are very good in all strokes and movement, then u are nearer to become world class player
2) profiting from shares consistently requires one to make good decisions. To make good decisions, u need to analyze. To be able to analyze, u need timely reliable information. The more information u have that can help u make the decision the better. Most importantly, u must know not all information hold the same weightage. But the more information u have that gives u reasons to buy(or sell), then the better off u are in making the correct decision. However, u can also buy or sell shares using the lazy man's way, although with equally potent results...by simply following someone u know who is very good. The problem to this though, is that u will be slower. It is often possible to buy at the same time/price when ur sifu buys. But will he tell u to sell when he sells? usually when a person exit, he will unlikely to inform others because he will want to exit while others are buying simply because prices rise slower than when they fall, and also because usually a person has no incentive to tell others to exit after he exit, unlike buying.(because in m'sia, shorting is banned) A person who bought may have incentive to ask others to buy to drive the price higher, but not when after he sells.Another lazy way is also trade on general market trend.
3)Buying shares can actually be a game of skill but many treat it as a game of chance(like gambling). To many gamblers, the games they gamble on actually is a game of LARGELY chance, but they treat it as a game of skill!It is no wonder so many ppl can go broke in both stock market and in gambling.
Anyway...i think i wrote too much already although i got more to share. but late already so here i let you know some of the sites i rely on for some important info
1. http://www.thestar.com.my/
top right hand corner, u can select stock and type in ur stock name here u can look at the different charts of individual stocks. Charts are important for short to midterm trading, because it shows u the price range.
after u get a chart, u can see on the right side fori)fundamentalsii) s/holding chg(insider/major shareholder recent buy or sell)u can also select up to a year for the chart
left side u can get a summary of stocks with recent changes in shareholding
2. http://www.klse.com.my/
this is the mother of all info. all financial statements will come here first. so if u like to get into fundamentals, this is a must. For me, i like to come here to get more detailed info on Changes in shareholdings(insider buy/sell). Fundamentals reading requires u to understand at least basic accounting and take time to go through. Majority of layman wouldn't give a hoot to it.
3. http://www.tradesignum.com/chart/
here u can track klci and also individual stocks other longer periods, right up to the 1980s or the stock inception. and here u can train urself to become technical analyst too.
4. http://forum.lowyat.net/StockExchange
Forums! this is my favourite forum to eavesdrop onto rumours. usually i will go through latest talks for the first tread(currently is Stock Market v49). there are many other forums and as u lepak around, u will know the different personalities of various long-time players... some dependable, some manipulators, some bodoh newbies like me, some are actually remisiers and some i believe are actually very rich individuals.some other forums
http://stockmarket.tailou.com/
http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php?board=3.0
5. blogs - there are many. many come and go too.there are some of the local bests.
http://www.samgang.blogspot.com/
-sam is probably one of the most influential local blogger on shares. his returns are impressively. until recently he used to blog for free but now if u want to know his tips, need to subscribe yearly for i think US40. which of cuz is fooking cheap. he is can be lansi in his ways to slam pure technical traders, but his fundamental methods campur with a tad of technical methods makes him worthy of his lansi-ness.
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/
very good analyst and info. but i find by the time he blogs about certain shares, the shares usually would have moved.
some other interesting ones
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/
http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/
5. news
local
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/
http://www.btimes.com.my/
overseas
http://money.cnn.com/http://www.cnbc.com/
Lastly, as i said, with so much info load, one must remember much of the info is useless. To start of, focus on learning some basic fundamentals - PE, ROE, sales, debt ratio. Learn some basic technical indicators. Listen to customers(could be yourself) about products of the company. Think about the management team(family?, highflyers? newbies? GLC?). Think abit of the industry and stock market cycle-buy low and sell high. Not buy high and hope to sell higher. Try it out and keep learning. Learn also various manipulation possible by market players. And last but not least, understand that the emotions of fear and hope can undermine all your learning or analysis. U must conquer them and not let emotions conquer you.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Fundamental Analysis vs Tread Analysis
FA and TA both depends on INFORMATION. Information comes from the underlying company and also from the perception/formulationof more information generated by the market. In other words, price of a stock is a functionof both fundamentals and perception. Fundamentals being the more important because without it there is no stock.FA tries to acertain the accurracy of the information coming out from the company andcapitalize on the information discrepacy between the companies information and how the market evaluateit.TA however assumes that the company is doing its job of making money and staying in existence but focus on the perception
part of the price which is volatile. FA tries not to make such assumption but focus on ensuring the the company is doing so.If the company is doing its job then the price is long term bullish.If the company is not doing its job then the price is long term bearish.But either one, along the way the price goes up and down(provided there is enuf vol) due to perception and TA tries to profit
from these movements.TA depends on FA for security and movement.FA depends on TA for maximum profit. FA takes advantage of TA.Both depends on itself to work. Huh? Yes, this is the theory of reflexivity by Soros. TA and FA information is both generated by humans and they themselves affect the price.When FA fails, it is usually because of the inaccuracy of the companies information. At these times, TA can be useful because it can pick up certain clues(due to action of insiders and relatedparties that knows these information beforehand). FA also fails in bear-ing market.
On astrology and markets. Astrological information may have certain truth in it. But the write up aboutit causes an affect greater than the real affect it actually has(In other words, mainly crap). The fact that many ppl believe in it causes it to be true.(You believe it is a bad year to buy, then you dont buy. If enuf ppl dont buy then the market will be depress) This is also true for TA, the fact that many traders believe in TA also can cause the believe to manifest.How true is the statement that astrological is played up more than it actually is true?This is because when it comes to natural disasters(which cannot be affected by believe),astrology always play backhand smash. After it happens, a lot of crap comes out saying how astrology indicated that it will happen. But never can astrology call a forehand, otherwise everybody can avoid natural disaster.
part of the price which is volatile. FA tries not to make such assumption but focus on ensuring the the company is doing so.If the company is doing its job then the price is long term bullish.If the company is not doing its job then the price is long term bearish.But either one, along the way the price goes up and down(provided there is enuf vol) due to perception and TA tries to profit
from these movements.TA depends on FA for security and movement.FA depends on TA for maximum profit. FA takes advantage of TA.Both depends on itself to work. Huh? Yes, this is the theory of reflexivity by Soros. TA and FA information is both generated by humans and they themselves affect the price.When FA fails, it is usually because of the inaccuracy of the companies information. At these times, TA can be useful because it can pick up certain clues(due to action of insiders and relatedparties that knows these information beforehand). FA also fails in bear-ing market.
On astrology and markets. Astrological information may have certain truth in it. But the write up aboutit causes an affect greater than the real affect it actually has(In other words, mainly crap). The fact that many ppl believe in it causes it to be true.(You believe it is a bad year to buy, then you dont buy. If enuf ppl dont buy then the market will be depress) This is also true for TA, the fact that many traders believe in TA also can cause the believe to manifest.How true is the statement that astrological is played up more than it actually is true?This is because when it comes to natural disasters(which cannot be affected by believe),astrology always play backhand smash. After it happens, a lot of crap comes out saying how astrology indicated that it will happen. But never can astrology call a forehand, otherwise everybody can avoid natural disaster.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
A bit of psychology
The psychology behind the stock market is very interesting.
It never fails to amaze me the thought process that goes on inside people who stays at the sidelines despite the up and downs of the market.
When it goes up, they think it is too expensive to buy already, when it goes down, they are scared the market is getting worse and will get worse some more, when it goes sideways, they are unsure.. so they never buy. In the end, it is the FEAR of losing money that drives this thoughts. So they play save to keep whatever they have than risk losing what they have.
Averaging up or down is also the same. As the price drops, ppl average down thinks that by buying lower and lower, their average price is lower so that when it goes up again, their margin will be better than if they just bought at the first price. Averaging up, the person thinks that since it is a rising star, as long as the price goes up, it is fine buying more and more.
In both circumstances, the thought process behind is the same... you buy because you have confidence in the stock/company and think it will go UP(eventually, in the case of averaging down). Afterall, that is the only reason ppl buy anyway. Averaging is also basically acknowledging the fact that no one can time the market perfectly(buying right at the bottom or selling right at the top). Another reason ppl average is due to circumstances that they have money coming in and wishes to continue to invest in the stock they like. But the underlying thought process remains the same.
It never fails to amaze me the thought process that goes on inside people who stays at the sidelines despite the up and downs of the market.
When it goes up, they think it is too expensive to buy already, when it goes down, they are scared the market is getting worse and will get worse some more, when it goes sideways, they are unsure.. so they never buy. In the end, it is the FEAR of losing money that drives this thoughts. So they play save to keep whatever they have than risk losing what they have.
Averaging up or down is also the same. As the price drops, ppl average down thinks that by buying lower and lower, their average price is lower so that when it goes up again, their margin will be better than if they just bought at the first price. Averaging up, the person thinks that since it is a rising star, as long as the price goes up, it is fine buying more and more.
In both circumstances, the thought process behind is the same... you buy because you have confidence in the stock/company and think it will go UP(eventually, in the case of averaging down). Afterall, that is the only reason ppl buy anyway. Averaging is also basically acknowledging the fact that no one can time the market perfectly(buying right at the bottom or selling right at the top). Another reason ppl average is due to circumstances that they have money coming in and wishes to continue to invest in the stock they like. But the underlying thought process remains the same.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Stocks are marketed to create buying and selling interest
Being a retailer, I handle large amount of different kinds of stocks. Due to my scientific education, I know some products do not work, but sells like hotcakes due to marketing. Stocks are just like that. Stocks prices of some company hardly move but report strong fundamentals year in and year out, while stocks prices of cyclical companies rises and falls like the tide, showing gains and loses multiple times its NTA value over short period of time. Why? Because, cyclical stocks frequently hog the headlines. Changes are what professional traders want, because fast changes create oppurtunities to profit fast.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Calling Bottom on the KLCI
Has klse bottomed? I should think so. Most people at this time still fear that worse is coming.
As one saying goes, "It will get worse before it gets worse." But I think otherwise. Here are some clues.
1) Indexes all across Asia(take a look at the Star paper) have been going sideways and now beginning to climb. The bottom was around late October 2008 when there was one day, every piece of business news was,"the sky is falling down!!". Support has since been running along that level.
2) The estimates for the best time to get into the market has been brought closer and closer by different analysts. Some say year 2010. Some then say end of 2009. Then some say after CNY. 2009 CNY? That's like about a month from now. And ppl are predicting it will crash further b4 climbing? Wat if no big scary news comes out? Then wat? It would be too late. Ppl says the stock market leads the economy by 6 months. Maybe it is not that precise...but it is to be sure "anticipatory". By the time you wait for the robins to come, spring is over.
3) I have been watching many of the top largest companies in klci. All of which charts are moving sideways or slowly ascending.
4) This round been sited a worldwide problem. But in reality it is not. It is mainly caused by the states and European countries. How badly was the west affected when the asian currency crisis hit us during 1997? For sure, due to the massive consumption capacity of the states, asian countries will be affected but we don't have the same credit problem as they do(reiterated many times by the government). In Malaysia, we have a unique system. The Chinese in general are a frugal lot with relative high savings, this character saves them from getting themselves into deep credit trouble. The Malays in general do spend more, we have a consumer base that continues to keep the economy chugging along. What a beautiful balance.
5) The recent release of employment data did not affect the Dows. Employment data is one of the key indicators that will affect the market. Dows practically ignored it. This shows the market has already factored in the expected bad news.
6) Warren Buffett, the world's greatest investor has already begun his purchase of American stocks way ahead of time.
7) Governments all over the world are quick to act this time round. From bailouts, epf cuts to fed rate cuts to also zero. Unlike previous meltdowns where the governments let the carnage run its course before deciding to act. Quicker action will result in quicker recovery.
8) Lastly, what sparked this crisis? Subprime, high credit...then came oil speculation which raised everything up causing precarious borrowers to start defaulting. Well, oil has now dropped as fast as it has risen. Logic tells u that shouldn't the borrowers be able to cope better now? Except that because of this crisis... fear has caused a chain reaction which causes everyone to pull back and spend less which in turn causes a downward spiral of demand for products of all sorts which causes manufacturers to cut back on production and to start chopping heads. But oil is low now, back to early 2004 prices. We have effectively gone back 4 years in time for an all important commodity price that influences the price of almost everything. The lower it goes, the better off everyone is. Companies should start getting better margins again.
It's a matter of logic really. And don't forget there are always invested groups, with tons of cash, that try to beat down the market to as low as possible so that they can buy up more of everything and obtain a higher profit margin when they finally decide to sell off during a bull.
Hence, bad news will continue to roll out to try and spook the weak holders. Does the market always tell the truth?
Take a look at what Tom Williams, retired syndicate trader has to say...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jwEwlZnSFY
PS : Beforehand calls
Bought 2 lots ioicorp at 3.22 yesterday
As one saying goes, "It will get worse before it gets worse." But I think otherwise. Here are some clues.
1) Indexes all across Asia(take a look at the Star paper) have been going sideways and now beginning to climb. The bottom was around late October 2008 when there was one day, every piece of business news was,"the sky is falling down!!". Support has since been running along that level.
2) The estimates for the best time to get into the market has been brought closer and closer by different analysts. Some say year 2010. Some then say end of 2009. Then some say after CNY. 2009 CNY? That's like about a month from now. And ppl are predicting it will crash further b4 climbing? Wat if no big scary news comes out? Then wat? It would be too late. Ppl says the stock market leads the economy by 6 months. Maybe it is not that precise...but it is to be sure "anticipatory". By the time you wait for the robins to come, spring is over.
3) I have been watching many of the top largest companies in klci. All of which charts are moving sideways or slowly ascending.
4) This round been sited a worldwide problem. But in reality it is not. It is mainly caused by the states and European countries. How badly was the west affected when the asian currency crisis hit us during 1997? For sure, due to the massive consumption capacity of the states, asian countries will be affected but we don't have the same credit problem as they do(reiterated many times by the government). In Malaysia, we have a unique system. The Chinese in general are a frugal lot with relative high savings, this character saves them from getting themselves into deep credit trouble. The Malays in general do spend more, we have a consumer base that continues to keep the economy chugging along. What a beautiful balance.
5) The recent release of employment data did not affect the Dows. Employment data is one of the key indicators that will affect the market. Dows practically ignored it. This shows the market has already factored in the expected bad news.
6) Warren Buffett, the world's greatest investor has already begun his purchase of American stocks way ahead of time.
7) Governments all over the world are quick to act this time round. From bailouts, epf cuts to fed rate cuts to also zero. Unlike previous meltdowns where the governments let the carnage run its course before deciding to act. Quicker action will result in quicker recovery.
8) Lastly, what sparked this crisis? Subprime, high credit...then came oil speculation which raised everything up causing precarious borrowers to start defaulting. Well, oil has now dropped as fast as it has risen. Logic tells u that shouldn't the borrowers be able to cope better now? Except that because of this crisis... fear has caused a chain reaction which causes everyone to pull back and spend less which in turn causes a downward spiral of demand for products of all sorts which causes manufacturers to cut back on production and to start chopping heads. But oil is low now, back to early 2004 prices. We have effectively gone back 4 years in time for an all important commodity price that influences the price of almost everything. The lower it goes, the better off everyone is. Companies should start getting better margins again.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_petroleum
"Oil prices have witnessed a significant fall since July 2008, and have been trading around 40$ a barrel on December 6, 2008"
It's a matter of logic really. And don't forget there are always invested groups, with tons of cash, that try to beat down the market to as low as possible so that they can buy up more of everything and obtain a higher profit margin when they finally decide to sell off during a bull.
Hence, bad news will continue to roll out to try and spook the weak holders. Does the market always tell the truth?
Take a look at what Tom Williams, retired syndicate trader has to say...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jwEwlZnSFY
PS : Beforehand calls
Bought 2 lots ioicorp at 3.22 yesterday
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